WWII - How the German military was hampered without sufficient oil supply, and when they begin to lose in 1944

 WWII - How the German military was hampered without sufficient oil supply, and when they begin to lose in 1944

There is little as argued about in the public sphere, in the field of history, than with wars, and little as wrong in the mainstream public's historical understanding of events, than of wars. In part due to propaganda, romanticization of war, a failure to understand basic military strategies, tactics, and logistics, and the sheer complexity of history in general, combined with the difficulty of recording events on the battlefield given their sheer danger and sporadic nature, much real information is actually lost, and so when combined with one's own personal interpretation of events, allows for a broad range of views to develop. Each person likes to believe they have the real, true answer, and that other's are wrong; this is true even for this article, and as a result much misinformation persists as history has no unbiased actors to record events. There is often a saying, that history is written by the victor, but this is generally untrue; history is written from multiple points of view, and unless the loser is entirely annihilated, their points of view are often considered and incorporated in to the narrative as well. The Americans full well include the Soviet and German side of events in to their own historical analysis as well, which further pollutes and muddies the water, despite the attempt to tell both sides. Each side wants to take credit for having "won" the war, even if they were the cause of it, and insists their ideas and strategies were superior. Personal opinion's on these events have even been pushed so aggressively on the public as to be taught in public schools, such as with the propaganda of the soviets during the cold war, claiming fascism had overtaken the west, and that the Soviet Union was the last free country in the world, a claim echoed by various American politicians, including the longest serving U.S. congressmen, Bernie Sanders. There is therefore also a political element for why people will claim one side of the war won or lost, and this tends to lead to individuals promoting a particular side or narrative of events, to try and promote the reputation of a particular organization or strategy and other subscribing to the theory. The goal of this article will be in part to dispel some of the rumors and provide some hard facts to counter various narratives, chiefly the Soviet one's, a country known for lying and propaganda, much of which still persists today. It also will be designed as a deeper exploration in to as fascinating a historical topic as WWII in general. 

Specifically, it will delve in to the German oil and resource supply, and when the German forces begin losing the war in WWII, which only occurs after invasions by the U.S. seriously materially damage the German military's ability to wage war and occupy territory. It also will explore hypothetical concepts of if the Soviets or British could have won the war alone, or if the U.S. was needed, and the logistics of war and WWII in general. It's difficult to overstate the importance of the American manufacturing machine; the overwhelming majority of key resources of the war and damage inflicted on the Germans is done by the Americans, despite their late entrance in to the war. The Americans by August of 1944 through strategic bombing runs facilitated in part by grabbing air-bases in European territory captured from the Germans, relentlessly bomb German targets, and cripple their oil production to nearly a 1/3rd, reduce their food supply by 40%, cut off the majority of their radio and communication systems, disrupt virtually all the German railway lines, and capture key strategic territory which cuts off German field units from their logistics supply lines which they must maintain a close distance to. The Germans heavily rely on railways due to a lack of oil and trucks like the Americans, and so they effectively have two army groups, one mobile force relying on their limited fuel supply and motorized vehicles, and another relying on trains; with just 8% of the german army being motorized or mechanized, they rely heavily on their trains for logistics supply which they most maintain a close distance to, which are quickly destroyed by American bombing runs. The German military, paralyzed in movement and communication, and without resources to fight, quickly surrender as the Americans rush in to Europe and liberate most of Europe piece by piece. Up until this point in the war Germany is gaining ground every year in the war, and only after the American invasion and bombing runs are the Germans sufficiently hampered to allow an allied attack in to the heart of Germany. It takes the Germans over 6 years to capture most of western Europe, and the Americans manage to liberate it in only 5 months. 

Just as over 90% of Russian railways were provided by the Americans, 2/3rds of their vehicles, most of their radios, over 50% of their aviation fuel, and sufficient food to keep the Soviets alive (who have lost over 40% of their agricultural production by this point), the Americans are capable of doing the reverse to the germans, crippling the Germans by severely hampering their communication systems, oil supply, food supply, railways, and factory production of goods in general. Despite the Notion by some who insist the Soviets were winning by this point in the war and in 1944 due to the ability to capture small pieces of their territory back, after being supplied by the Americans, the Germans are still on their way to conquer the rest of Europe, Africa, and the Middle east, while the soviets can barely cling to their own territory and do not manage to capture all of it back until after the U.S. invades. While there is no intent to diminish the roles played by the Soviet Union, British, Finnish, French and other forces and their sacrifices during the war, a simple goal of this article is to explain when the turning point of the war truly begins from an objective standpoint, which is around June 6th 1944, or the time of D-Day. While many will detest that this is favorable to the American viewpoint, and thus must be automatically wrong, the objective facts are in the favor of the U.S. presence being the turning point of the war, which is backed up by the available evidence. Neither the Soviets nor the British can maintain serious offenses outside of their own countries, and thus do not have the capacity to invade in to the heart of Germany and stop the Germans, themselves. In the words of Joseph Stalin at the time: "Without American machines the United Nations could never have won the war."

The Timelines

The one immutable characteristic of man's existence and the universe in general is time. While time is relative at some level, according to modern scientific theory pioneered by Einstein, there is a fixed general time to the start of the universe, that is unavoidable. Nothing can have occurred before something else and caused change in the past, so, a person pulling the trigger of a gun is what caused the gun to fire, and, not the other way around. Even if a few milliseconds are present in-between the time the trigger is pulled and the bullet is fired, there is sufficient time to make it impossible for the bullet being fired to have been what caused the trigger to be pulled. A bullet does not cause a gun to fire, and similarly, bombs do not travel back in time. Certain events occur at fixed points in history, and to dispel rumors' and debates, these exact, undeniable instances need to be used as concrete, clear evidence of a point. While there is far more to the debate of WWII than this, it's important to whittle down the key points to as simple and easily understood ideas as possible that are as easily proven, or else there is no foundation from which the rest can follow. Fixed dates are important not just as a matter of wrote memorization, but to understand what events lead to the next in history. Time is a never-ending flow of history, and so history is not made of arbitrary random events, but a series of events that lead to the next. One thing leads to another and, things rarely just "happen" suddenly without any obvious cause. It is not possible for an invasion by the Soviets in August of 1944 to cut off the German oil supply in June of 1944, two months prior, and so a classic narrative by the Soviet propaganda that they were the one's that managed to cut off the German oil supply through their invasion of Romania, which was ironically backed up with substantial American bombing runs, is wrong. It's important to dispel these false notions about the war, not just to settle petty squabbles, but to understand history. 

Key to Crippling the entire german military is cutting off their oil supply. The Germans, who had issues with oil production for most of the war and before it, manage to produce enough oil to maintain their forces during most of the war, and continue producing oil throughout the entire war, actually peaking in 1943 before the U.S. lead invasion in germany, where it drops suddenly in 1944 and drops to virtually nothing by 1945. Already short on fuel, the Germans suffer substantially from this, and bombings in the summer and spring of 1944 cripple the german fuel supply, mostly starting in may, resulting in a 70% reduction of their oil production, or cutting it just 1/3rd of it's previous level, by august of 1944. While destroying their rails, communication systems, radar, food supply and other resources would be just as important, the German army simply could not operate it's vehicles without oil and so, their aircraft, tanks, trucks and other armored vehicles would not be able to function, paralyzing the german army. With just 8% mechanization the German army was easy to disrupt, and so their military was left depending entirely on rail which, was easily damaged and overtaken. While trucks can drive over damaged road or even off-road if need be for a short duration, trains must travel in a straight line on very specific train tracks, and so even slight changes to the train tracks can result in catastrophic derailing. When american bombing runs destroyed hundreds of miles of train tracks, the constant interrupted travel lead to the rails becoming almost useless and thus crippling the entire german army supply. Even worse than having limited resources was not having a method to provide what was left of it to their men in the field, forcing them to frequently withdraw. This allowed the Americans and it's allies along with it to quickly take ground from the Germans that in many cases they were practically forced to give up, and crippled their ability to fight other than with light infantry who largely were immobile and had limited ammunition supply, securing easy victory's across most of Europe. One only needs to look at Germany territory in 1943 in comparison to German territory in December of 1944 to realize how quickly the Germans lost most of their land. While it is true that other military's suffered far more deaths and causalities during the war, tragically, and may have even inflicted more losses to the german army in total (although most of the german army death's were due to exposure, such as from starving or freezing to death in the Soviet union), the Americans were critical to taking their territory from them, and thus ending German rule over it's conquered territories and occupying nations. The liberation of Europe would fall to America, of whom virtually no other country in the war had the ability to do. It was not enough for country's like the UK or the Soviet Union to survive, but it was necessary to mount an offensive campaign in to the heart of Europe and Germany itself, which would have been impossible given their own lack of resources, manpower, and general power projection necessary to send men abroad to fight in foreign territory. Fighting on the offensive is far harder than fighting on the defensive and one can never committ all of their troops to offensive combat, needing some to remain at home to defend their homeland. 

German oil supply prior to D-Day and April Bombing runs of 1944

It's often been said that the German oil supply before April and June of 1944, and in general, was still exceedingly bad compared to the rest of Europe or other Developed countries, and this is largely true. Germany itself has no major petroleum reserves, despite an abundance of coal, and heavily relies on imports or synthetic fuel for oil production. The germans, so desperate for oil, consume coal in order to produce a form of synthetic fuel which can be consumed by their war machine, simulating wood-gas and that has a large composition of hydrogen and carbon monoxide dissolved in to water which is, highly explosive. For every 5 tons of coal, they can produce approximately 1 ton of synthetic fuel, and synthetic fuel costs were approximately 3-5 times as much as oil at the time, or approximately 25 cents per liter. Furthermore, it is an incredibly time-consuming and laborious task that, monetary issues aside, is difficult to perform requiring a large amount of exceptionally skilled scientists, and that is inherently difficult to store. This fuel is highly explosive and prone to leaking given that it is a form of gas dissolved and stored in to water, and so it is difficult to use in tanks and vehicles, and in part responsible for excessive wear and tear as well as reliability issues in the vehicles. Nonetheless with these Synthetic oil refineries and oil imported from Romania, Germany is more than capable of maintaining it's war machine abroad, despite the 1936 Embargo. In fact, German oil production peaks in 1943 and early 1944, exceeding it's supply before the war started, due to an ability to steal resources from other countries, civilian repurposing of oil to Germany, and by simply ramping up production for the war effort. The Germans are estimated by the allies to be producing 15% more than is needed to supply their war machine, and are capable of putting a small amount in to a strategic reserve, which indicates that they had more than they were consuming by this point in the war. There is no multi-year long strategic oil reserve of the germans, as oil goes bad in less than a year and it is difficult to store this volume of oil in containers, and so, while it is often portrayed that the Germans are "running low on oil" and cutting in to some kind of permanent reserve, the Germans continue to produce oil during the length of the entire war, only being substantially crippled by mid 1944 after U.S. bombings. 

It's important to note that the Germans are increasing their fuel supply so that it can be understood that a failure to capture Soviet oil reserves in 1941 does not mean the defeat of the Germans. They not only continue the war for another 4 years, but, manage to capture more territory in Europe during this time, including Italy (a major power of the war), Albania, Greece, Croatia, Crete, and finish capturing most of France and other occupied territories. Simultaneously, they manage to push the British make to the UK who must give up most of their foreign territory in Europe by this point. They also manage to capture large pieces of Soviet territory, that while Soviet offenses manage to take back parts of in incredibly costly offenses (losing over half their manpower against the Germans due to deaths and casualties), materially do little to stop the German advance, particularly in the rest of the world. The Soviets who have their food and industrial manufacturing production cut in half, and are forced to using wallpaper as flour in their bread, are kept alive almost entirely through American food and railway imports, which prove crucial to winning the war. It is said by Stalin, that: "Without American machines the United Nations could never have won the war." and later by Boris Vadimovich Sokolov: "On the whole the following conclusion can be drawn: that without these Western shipments under Lend-Lease the Soviet Union not only would not have been able to win the Great Patriotic War, it would not have been able even to oppose the German invaders, since it could not itself produce sufficient quantities of arms and military equipment or adequate supplies of fuel and ammunition. The Soviet authorities were well aware of this dependency on Lend-Lease. Thus, Stalin told Harry Hopkins that the U.S.S.R. could not match Germany's might as an occupier of Europe and its resources."

So while the Soviet Union is falling apart and the British pushed all the way back to their home Island, the Germans have reached peak war production of oil and machines, and there is little presence of any allied force inside of mainland Western Europe. Aside from a small number of largely ineffective partisans and remnant military forces, as well as western spies, there is a relatively small and muted presence of the allies in western Europe. Key elements of the allied war effort at this point focus on reconnaissance of the Germans, which reveal critically german oil reserves and synthetic plant locations, as well as radio communication systems, railways which transport over 90% of their military, important factory locations, military bases, and other critical infrastructure. While the importance of this cannot be denied, material gains against the Germans are minor, and despite significant bombing runs against the Germans starting from 1942 onwards by both the Americans and the British, these make little headway in seriously damaging the germans means of operations. Psychologically this forces the Germans to prepare for attacks from all directions and change some of their manufacturing methods, but it does little to physically hamper their overall production. 

The state of Germany

The State of the Soviet Union

Georgy Zhukov: "Today [1963] some say the Allies didn't really help us ... But listen, one cannot deny that the Americans shipped over to us material without which we could not have equipped our armies held in reserve or been able to continue the war."

Joseph Stalin (leader of the Soviet union): "Without American machines the United Nations could never have won the war." 

Boris Vadimovich Sokolov: "On the whole the following conclusion can be drawn: that without these Western shipments under Lend-Lease the Soviet Union not only would not have been able to win the Great Patriotic War, it would not have been able even to oppose the German invaders, since it could not itself produce sufficient quantities of arms and military equipment or adequate supplies of fuel and ammunition. The Soviet authorities were well aware of this dependency on Lend-Lease. Thus, Stalin told Harry Hopkins that the U.S.S.R. could not match Germany's might as an occupier of Europe and its resources."

It is difficult to overstate how poor the Soviets are faring during WWII, before the U.S. invasion of june 1944, and it's economic state in general. 

State of the UK

General strategies and tactics